Según esas previsiones, "el PIB mundial no crecerá trimestralmente por primera vez desde 2009", escribió Simon Macadam, economista mundial de la compañía con sede en Londres, en un comentario.
Macadam espera que el virus se contenga y que para el resto del año "la producción perdida se recupere en los trimestres posteriores, de modo que el PIB mundial alcance el nivel que habría alcanzado si no hubiese habido un brote para mediados de 2021".
Lea más: Centroamérica toma preocupaciones por coronavirus en China
La cifra mundial de fallecidos por el brote de coronavirus alcanzó 910 el lunes, y el director de la Organización Mundial de la Salud expresó su preocupación por el contagio de la enfermedad a personas sin antecedentes de viajes a China. El virus ya ha provocado el bloqueo de la provincia china de Hubei, que es una potencia industrial del tamaño de Suecia, y ha nublado las perspectivas de crecimiento mundial en el corto plazo.
Capital Economics espera que el impacto en Asia supere las consecuencias experimentadas durante el brote de SARS en 2003. Una gran caída en la llegada de turistas chinos y los trastornos a las cadenas mundiales de suministro de manufacturas afectarán en particular a las economías emergentes de Asia, aunque India, Indonesia y Filipinas se enfrentarán a daños limitados dado que tienen una menor integración con China.
Lea también: ¿Qué se sabe del coronavirus?
Para las economías avanzadas, Macadam pronostica una contracción en la economía de Australia debido a su dependencia de China para los ingresos de turismo y exportaciones.
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